Vistra Corp.
Revenue
$5B
Net Income
$1B
Vistra Corp.
Revenue
$5B
Net Income
$1B
Vistra Corp.
CIK: 0001692819
Earnings Analysis
Analyzed 11 of 12 reports
Performance Summary - Q1 2026bullish (75)not_provided
Reality-Based Sentiment Analysisbullish75/100
Based on actual market data, not just management spin. Weighted score: 10% management tone + 40% earnings beat/miss + 30% price action + 20% guidance accuracy.
Financial Performance Trend
Overall Analysis & Outlook
Over the past 5 quarters, Vistra Corp. has been showing mixed sentiment with stable guidance. Revenue has grown 65.2% during this period. The latest quarter shows bullish sentiment with neutral tone from management.
Latest Quarter Highlights:
Vistra delivered strong Q1 2026 results with revenue of $5.6B (43.2% YoY increase) and net income of $1.03B, a dramatic turnaround from Q1 2025 net loss of $268M, driven by increased generation revenue from the Lotus acquisition and favorable commodity pricing. The company achieved investment-grade credit ratings in early 2026, enabling full collateral release and refinancing of $2.4B in secured term loans with $4B of senior unsecured notes in April 2026. Operating cash flow of $1.2B supports a pipeline of growth investments including the pending $2.3B Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas capacity) expected to close in H2 2026.
Detailed Quarterly Reports
In-depth analysis of each quarter's earnings filing
Q1 2026
10-Q • Filed 5/8/2026
Summary
Vistra delivered strong Q1 2026 results with revenue of $5.6B (43.2% YoY increase) and net income of $1.03B, a dramatic turnaround from Q1 2025 net loss of $268M, driven by increased generation revenue from the Lotus acquisition and favorable commodity pricing. The company achieved investment-grade credit ratings in early 2026, enabling full collateral release and refinancing of $2.4B in secured term loans with $4B of senior unsecured notes in April 2026. Operating cash flow of $1.2B supports a pipeline of growth investments including the pending $2.3B Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas capacity) expected to close in H2 2026.
Revenue
$5.00B
Net Income
$1.03B
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$883M(+14.96% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In April 2026, Vistra Operations issued $4.0 billion aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes... used to repay or redeem existing indebtedness, including the $1.3 billion outstanding principal amount of 5.625% Senior Notes due 2027 and the $2.444 billion in outstanding borrowings under the Term Loan B-3 facility"
"On March 16, 2026, Fitch upgraded Vistra Operations' issuer default rating and the Senior Unsecured Notes rating from BB+ to BBB- and revised its outlook from Positive to Stable... the liens on the collateral securing the Senior Secured Notes were automatically terminated and released in full on April 2, 2026"
"The Cogentrix Transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026... aggregate consideration... approximately $2.3 billion in cash, net of adjustments for the assumption of an estimated $1.5 billion of outstanding indebtedness... 5,000,000 shares of Vistra common stock"
Q4 2025
10-K • Filed 2/27/2026
Summary
Vistra's 10-K presents a company operating in a highly regulated and uncertain environment with significant headwinds. While the company maintains approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity serving deregulated markets with over 230 TWh expected generation, the filing is heavily weighted toward regulatory risks, environmental compliance obligations, and operational challenges rather than growth opportunities or positive forward momentum. Management tone is defensive throughout, emphasizing risk mitigation rather than business expansion.
Revenue
$4.80B
Net Income
$233M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$182M
Key Quotes
"Our revenues, results of operations and operating cash flows generally are affected by price fluctuations in the wholesale power market and other market factors beyond our control."
"Our liquidity needs could be difficult to satisfy, particularly during times of uncertainty in the financial markets or during times of significant fluctuation in commodity prices, and we may be unable to access capital on favorable terms or at all in the future."
"We estimate that our generation facilities produced approximately 102 million short tons of CO2 in the year ended 2025."
Q3 2025
10-Q • Filed 11/7/2025
Summary
Vistra reported Q3 2025 revenue of $4,971 million and net income of $652 million, down from Q3 2024's $6,288 million and $1,837 million respectively, driven by lower wholesale energy prices and mark-to-market losses on hedges. The company generated $2,638 million in operating cash flow (9M 2025) while managing significant operational disruptions from the Moss Landing 300 battery fire and Martin Lake coal unit fire, though benefiting from insurance recoveries. Strategic growth initiatives include the October 2025 acquisition of 2,600 MW of natural gas generation from Lotus and $2 billion of new debt issuance, positioning the company for geographic diversification while addressing near-term operational challenges.
Revenue
$4.78B
Net Income
$652M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$1.92B
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"As of September 30, 2025, the net book value of the Moss Landing 100 facility was approximately $165 million... We expect the Moss Landing 350 MW battery to return to service in late 2025 or early 2026."
"We estimate total cash capital expenditures required to restore the [Martin Lake] unit to service will be approximately $355 million, of which approximately $155 million in cash capital expenditures have been incurred as of September 30, 2025."
"In October 2025, Vistra Operations issued $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes... [and] the Board authorized an incremental amount of $1.0 billion for repurchases under our share repurchase program."
Q2 2025
10-Q • Filed 8/8/2025
Summary
Vistra reported Q2 2025 revenue of $4,250 million (up 10.5% YoY) and net income of $327 million, though impacted by $68 million asset impairments and significant operational disruptions from the Moss Landing battery fire and Martin Lake coal unit incident. The company is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy with a $1.9 billion acquisition of 2,600 MW of natural gas capacity across major eastern markets and the acquisition of noncontrolling interests in Vistra Vision, while managing recovery efforts and substantial insurance claims from recent facility incidents.
Revenue
$3.75B
Net Income
$327M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$1.46B
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"The aggregate purchase price consists of a base purchase price of $1.9 billion, subject to certain customary adjustments... and (b) cash. The principal amount of the senior secured credit facility to be assumed is expected to be approximately 50% of the consideration at closing."
"On July 16, 2025, we entered into an Administrative Settlement Agreement and Order on Consent (ASAOC) with the EPA related to the Moss Landing 300 site... We estimate the total cost of these activities to be approximately $110 million."
"We filed insurance claims against applicable insurance policies with combined business interruption and property loss limits of $500 million, net of deductibles."
Q1 2025
10-Q • Filed 5/8/2025
Summary
Vistra reported Q1 2025 revenue of $3.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year, but posted a net loss of $268 million versus net income of $18 million in Q1 2024, primarily driven by a $400 million write-off of the Moss Landing 300 battery facility destroyed in a January 2025 fire and increased interest expense. Despite strong revenue growth, the company faces significant headwinds from the Moss Landing incident, higher debt servicing costs, and mark-to-market losses on commodity positions, resulting in defensive positioning and elevated near-term uncertainty.
Revenue
$4.25B
Net Income
$-268M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$768M(+65.2% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"On January 16, 2025, we detected a fire at our Moss Landing 300 MW energy storage facility at the Moss Landing Power Plant site that resulted in ceasing operations at all facilities at the Moss Landing complex until the fire was contained."
"As a result of the damage caused by the Moss Landing Incident, during the three months ended March 31, 2025, we wrote-off the net book value of Moss Landing 300 of approximately $400 million to depreciation expense and moved the asset to the Asset Closure segment as we have no plans to return the Moss Landing 300 facility to operations."
"We are currently unable to estimate the full impact the Moss Landing Incident will have on us as our estimate will evolve as demolition progresses."
Q4 2024
10-K • Filed 2/28/2025
Summary
Vistra's 2024 10-K reveals a company facing significant regulatory headwinds, particularly from recently finalized EPA environmental rules (GHG, CCR, ELG) that will require substantial capital investments and operational modifications through 2030-2032. The company added 4,048 MW of nuclear capacity via Energy Harbor acquisition and is pursuing renewable projects (750 MW battery, 450+ MW solar), but growth faces supply chain constraints, interconnection delays, and uncertain regulatory environment. Management tone is defensive with extensive risk factor disclosure, though the company maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy and strong operational focus on safety.
Revenue
$3.66B
Net Income
$441M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$238M
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"We are targeting to achieve a 60% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 CO2 equivalent emissions by 2030 as compared to a 2010 baseline with a long-term goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050"
"For the next five years, Vistra is projected to spend approximately $238 million (on a nominal basis) to achieve its mining reclamation objectives"
"The convergence of current global conditions, including sustained inflation, elevated interest rates, and the geopolitical climate, has and could lead to, or accelerate or exacerbate the occurrence of, a significant economic downturn"
Q3 2024
10-Q • Filed 11/8/2024
Summary
Vistra delivered strong Q3 2024 results with record quarterly revenue of $6.3 billion (+54% YoY) and net income of $1.8 billion (+266% YoY), driven by the Energy Harbor acquisition integration, robust wholesale pricing, and unrealized gains from commodity mark-to-market valuations. The company generated solid operating cash flow of $3.2 billion YTD and completed the strategic $3.1 billion cash acquisition of Energy Harbor in March 2024, significantly expanding its nuclear and retail platforms. Notably, management is pursuing full ownership of Vistra Vision through the $3.4 billion acquisition of the 15% noncontrolling interest from Nuveen and Avenue, expected to close by December 31, 2026, while awaiting critical IRA guidance on nuclear production tax credits.
Revenue
$4.34B
Net Income
$1.89B
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$1.65B(+30.6% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"Energy Harbor Merger combines Energy Harbor's and Vistra's nuclear and retail businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and energy storage facilities to provide diversification and scale across multiple carbon-free technologies"
"All our nuclear units qualify for this credit [nuclear PTC], which is based on the amount of electricity sold during the taxable year and is subject to a phase-out based on annual gross receipts. The amount of nuclear PTCs recorded could have a material impact on our 2024 financial statements."
"Operating income 2,588 million for Q3 2024 versus 834 million in Q3 2023, representing a 210% increase driven by strong generation margins and integration benefits"
Q2 2024
10-Q • Filed 8/9/2024
Summary
Vistra Corp. reported Q2 2024 revenues of $3.845 billion and net income of $467 million, up 20.6% and -1.9% respectively year-over-year, despite headwinds from mark-to-market losses on commodity positions. The company successfully completed the Energy Harbor Merger in March 2024, combining its retail and generation businesses with Energy Harbor's nuclear assets, creating a diversified portfolio across dispatchable nuclear and renewables/storage. While operational cash flow of $1.508 billion for H1 2024 remained solid, management offered no forward guidance, though the recent NRC approval of Comanche Peak license renewal extending to 2050/2053 and potential nuclear production tax credits under the IRA represent positive long-term drivers pending Treasury guidance.
Revenue
$3.60B
Net Income
$365M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$963M(+3.99% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"The Energy Harbor Merger combines Energy Harbor's and Vistra's nuclear and retail businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and energy storage facilities to provide diversification and scale across multiple carbon-free technologies (dispatchable and renewables/storage) and the retail business."
"Although we believe it is probable we have met the conditions required to earn the nuclear PTC, we await critical guidance from the U.S. Treasury and IRS on the definition of gross receipts that may materially impact the total amount of credits we are entitled to receive."
"In July 2024, our application for license renewal at our two-unit Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant was approved by the NRC. The licenses for Units 1 and 2 now extend into 2050 and 2053, respectively, an additional 20 years beyond our original licenses."
Q1 2024
10-Q • Filed 5/10/2024
Summary
Q1 2024 revenues declined 31% YoY to $3.054B as commodity mark-to-market losses of $347M significantly impacted results, while net income fell from $699M to $18M. The Energy Harbor merger on March 1, 2024 added material assets but diluted near-term earnings; adjusted for the merger timing, pro forma Q1 revenues were $3.777B. Capital expenditures remained elevated at $465M due to nuclear fuel and storage investments, with free cash flow turned negative at -$153M despite $312M operating cash flow.
Revenue
$3.16B
Net Income
$-35M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$465M(-3.9% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"The Energy Harbor Merger combines Energy Harbor's and Vistra's nuclear and retail businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and energy storage facilities to provide diversification and scale across multiple carbon-free technologies"
"Unrealized net losses from mark-to-market valuations of commodity positions totaled $347M for Q1 2024 compared to unrealized gains of $1.277B in Q1 2023"
"We remain active in legislative monitoring and advocacy efforts to support a legislative solution to reinstate and make permanent the addback of depreciation and amortization to adjusted taxable income under Section 163(j)"
Q3 2023
10-Q • Filed 11/7/2023
Summary
Vistra reported Q3 2023 revenue of $4,086 million and net income of $502 million, down from $5,146 million revenue and $678 million net income in Q3 2022, primarily due to lower wholesale generation margins from reduced market heat rates. Operating cash flow for the nine-month period was strong at $4,572 million. The company is executing the Energy Harbor acquisition (targeting Q4 2023 close) which will double zero-carbon generation capacity and create a leading integrated retail and nuclear generation company, with regulatory approvals progressing and fossil asset divestitures required. Capital expenditures of $1,262 million reflect continued renewable development investments, including Moss Landing Phase III which commenced operations and generated $141 million in transferable investment tax credits.
Revenue
$4.79B
Net Income
$502M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$1.26B(+38.9% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"Vistra Vision will combine Energy Harbor's nuclear and retail businesses with Vistra's nuclear and retail businesses and certain of the Vistra Zero renewables and energy storage projects. This combination is expected to create a leading integrated retail electricity and zero-carbon generation company with the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the U.S."
"This transaction is expected to accelerate Vistra's path to a clean energy transition by more than doubling the amount of zero-carbon generation it has online at the time of the Transactions' closing."
"As of September 30, 2023, we had accumulated approximately $66 million in construction-work-in-process for these remaining Texas segment solar generation projects."
Q2 2023
10-Q • Filed 8/9/2023
Summary
Vistra delivered strong Q2 2023 results with revenue of $3,189M (up 101% YoY) and net income of $476M (vs. loss of $1,365M YoY), driven by higher commodity prices and mark-to-market gains of $89M. The company is executing its clean energy transition through the landmark $6.3B Energy Harbor acquisition (pending regulatory approval), significant capex investments in renewables/battery storage ($926M H1 2023, up 51% YoY), and continued monetization of transmission tax credits. Strong operational cash flow of $3,012M demonstrates financial health.
Revenue
$3.03B
Net Income
$476M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$926M(+51.1% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"This combination is expected to create a leading integrated retail electricity and zero-carbon generation company with the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the U.S., along with a growing renewables and energy storage portfolio."
"Moss Landing Phase III commenced commercial operations in June 2023. As a result of reaching commercial operations, we recognized $141 million of transferable ITCs associated with the project."
"We anticipate the Transactions will close in the fourth quarter of 2023."
Sector Comparison
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