Moderna Inc.
Revenue
$145M
Net Income
$-782M
Moderna Inc.
Revenue
$145M
Net Income
$-782M
Moderna Inc.
CIK: 0001682852
Earnings Analysis
Analyzed 11 of 12 reports
Performance Summary - Q2 2026neutral (44)not_provided
Reality-Based Sentiment Analysisneutral44/100
Based on actual market data, not just management spin. Weighted score: 10% management tone + 40% earnings beat/miss + 30% price action + 20% guidance accuracy.
Financial Performance Trend
Overall Analysis & Outlook
Over the past 5 quarters, Moderna Inc. has been showing bearish trends with stable guidance. Revenue has declined 92.1% during this period. The latest quarter shows bearish sentiment with neutral tone from management.
Latest Quarter Highlights:
Moderna reported Q2 2026 revenue of $145 million with a net loss of $782 million, reflecting challenging commercial dynamics with COVID vaccine sales declining 20% year-over-year and significant cost pressures. The company incurred a $950 million litigation settlement with Arbutus/Genevant, along with $79 million in inventory write-downs, while operating cash flow turned sharply negative at -$1.2 billion for the first half. Pipeline progress appears mixed with favorable regulatory developments (mCOMBRIAX EC approval, mRNA-1010 positive advisory committee vote) offset by a norovirus vaccine trial failure and multiple ongoing patent disputes.
Detailed Quarterly Reports
In-depth analysis of each quarter's earnings filing
Q2 2026
10-Q • Filed 7/31/2026
Summary
Moderna reported Q2 2026 revenue of $145 million with a net loss of $782 million, reflecting challenging commercial dynamics with COVID vaccine sales declining 20% year-over-year and significant cost pressures. The company incurred a $950 million litigation settlement with Arbutus/Genevant, along with $79 million in inventory write-downs, while operating cash flow turned sharply negative at -$1.2 billion for the first half. Pipeline progress appears mixed with favorable regulatory developments (mCOMBRIAX EC approval, mRNA-1010 positive advisory committee vote) offset by a norovirus vaccine trial failure and multiple ongoing patent disputes.
Revenue
$145M
Net Income
$-782M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$99M
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"mCOMBRIAX received marketing authorization from the European Commission in April 2026 for the prevention of influenza disease and COVID-19 in individuals 50 years of age and older"
"The FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted unanimously that the benefits of mRNA-1010 outweigh its risks for the prevention of influenza disease"
"Our Phase 3 safety and efficacy study of mRNA-1403 did not meet statistical criteria for early success at the Phase 3 interim analysis"
Q1 2026
10-Q • Filed 5/1/2026
Summary
Moderna reported Q1 2026 revenue of $389 million (up 260% YoY) driven by COVID vaccine sales to governments, but posted a net loss of $1.343 billion due to an $878 million litigation settlement charge with Arbutus/Genevant and $950 million accrual liability. Operating cash flow was negative $630 million, reflecting significant working capital pressures and the substantial settlement obligation due in Q3 2026, creating near-term liquidity concerns despite a commercial product portfolio of three approved vaccines.
Revenue
$389M
Net Income
$-1,343M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$62M(-47% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"The settlement resolves all worldwide Arbutus/Genevant litigation related to Spikevax and mRESVIA and provides certainty going forward for our full infectious disease portfolio, including mNEXSPIKE, mCOMBRIAX and our future vaccine pipeline, with no future royalties owed."
"Consistent with the terms of the settlement agreement, we have appealed the District Court's decision related to 28 U.S.C. § 1498 to the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals and could be required to make an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion depending on the outcome."
"Product sales are expected to return to growth in 2026, supported by the full-year impact of long-term strategic partnerships with government entities."
Q4 2025
10-K • Filed 2/20/2026
Summary
Moderna reported full-year 2025 revenue of $9.189 billion and net income of $3.170 billion, reflecting significant COVID vaccine market decline post-pandemic. The company faces substantial headwinds including regulatory uncertainty (FDA EUA revocation), weak market positioning in RSV vaccines, competitive pressure from larger pharma companies, and pricing pressures from MFN policies. Management's defensive tone throughout the risk factors section emphasizes execution risks in manufacturing, clinical development challenges, and dependency on third-party collaborators, particularly for oncology programs like intismeran.
Revenue
$678M
Net Income
$-826M
Guidance
Tone
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In August 2025, the FDA revoked the EUA for emergency use of our COVID vaccine."
"We have experienced commercial challenges and may experience additional challenges in the future. We face risks and uncertainties related to successfully commercializing our products."
"We also compete against other vaccines, including Sanofi and Novavax's. Additionally, some competitors have developed COVID treatments, including Pfizer's antiviral pill, which may reduce demand for vaccines. With respect to our RSV vaccine, we compete against Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, who entered the U.S. market prior to us, and our RSV sales have been minimal to date."
Q3 2025
10-Q • Filed 11/6/2025
Summary
Moderna reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1,016 million (down 45% YoY) and a net loss of $200 million, reflecting significant headwinds from declining COVID vaccine demand and a major clinical setback with the CMV vaccine failing Phase 3 efficacy targets. Operating cash flow was negative $2.8 billion for the nine-month period, with cash and investments declining to $6.5 billion from $8.0 billion at year-end, indicating accelerating cash burn. The company faces multiple regulatory and patent challenges while advancing its pipeline through partnerships and government manufacturing collaborations.
Revenue
$1.02B
Net Income
$-200M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$153M(-71.1% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In October 2025, we announced topline results from the Phase 3 pivotal trial evaluating the efficacy of mRNA-1647, our investigational CMV vaccine. The study did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of preventing CMV infection in seronegative female participants of childbearing age (16 to 40 years of age)."
"For the third quarter of 2025, we recognized net product sales of $973 million, compared to $1.8 billion for the third quarter of 2024."
"In May 2025, we received notice from HHS that the award for late-stage development and the right to purchase pre-pandemic influenza vaccines would be terminated. Revenue recognized related to this agreement was immaterial as of September 30, 2025."
Q2 2025
10-Q • Filed 8/1/2025
Summary
Moderna reported Q2 2025 revenue of $142 million, down 41% YoY, with net product sales declining 38% to $114 million amid challenging commercial demand for COVID and RSV vaccines. The company posted a net loss of $825 million ($2.13 per share) despite reducing operating expenses 35% YoY, reflecting the seasonality of vaccine sales and inventory write-downs of $38 million. Cash burn remains significant with negative operating cash flow of $1.96 billion in H1 2025, while the loss of the $766 million BARDA pandemic influenza program and multiple patent disputes create near-term headwinds.
Revenue
$142M
Net Income
$-825M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$120M(-68.3% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"We anticipate seasonal fluctuations in demand for our COVID and RSV vaccines, with higher sales expected during the fall and winter seasons."
"In May 2025, we received notice from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that our award for the late-stage development of mRNA-based pandemic influenza vaccines would be terminated."
"mNEXSPIKE, our newest commercial product, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in May 2025 for individuals aged 65 years and older, as well as individuals aged 12 through 64 years with at least one underlying risk factor."
Q1 2025
10-Q • Filed 5/1/2025
Summary
Moderna reported Q1 2025 revenue of $108 million (down 35% YoY) with net loss of $971 million as COVID vaccine sales contracted 49% due to lower vaccination rates and increased competition. The company is pursuing aggressive cost management with R&D down 19% and SG&A down 23%, while holding $8.4 billion in liquidity but burning $1 billion in operating cash flow. Management acknowledged COVID's transition to a seasonal vaccine with declining full-year 2025 sales expected, though emerging programs (INT, RSV expansion, pandemic influenza) and government partnerships provide diversification.
Revenue
$108M
Net Income
$-971M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$117M(-40% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"As COVID has transitioned to a seasonal respiratory vaccine, we anticipate a decline in net product sales for the full year 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to lower expected vaccination rates and increased competition."
"We anticipate a reduction in research and development expenses in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by disciplined cost management and a focused approach to pipeline execution."
"Cost of sales as a percentage of net product sales for the three months ended March 31, 2025 increased to 104%, compared to 58% for the same period in 2024, reflecting the impact of lower net product sales."
Q4 2024
10-K • Filed 2/21/2025
Summary
Moderna reported full-year 2024 revenue of $3.1 billion, a significant 54% decline from 2023's $6.7 billion, driven by weakening COVID vaccine demand and underperformance in RSV vaccine market share. The company faces intense competitive pressures, supply chain constraints, commercial execution challenges, and extensive regulatory headwinds that limit near-term growth prospects. While partnerships and pipeline programs show promise, management's cautious tone reflects substantial uncertainty around future vaccine markets and the need for continued cost efficiency measures.
Revenue
$966M
Net Income
$-1,120M
Guidance
Tone
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In 2024, we recognized $3.1 billion of product sales, compared to $6.7 billion, $18.4 billion and $17.7 billion in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively."
"We faced commercial challenges that led to lower-than-expected sales and required us to adapt our business strategy. We experienced difficulties maintaining our COVID vaccine market share and gaining market share in the U.S. for our RSV vaccine, where we were third to market."
"The commercial markets for these vaccines are seasonal and characterized, particularly in the U.S. (our largest market), by a fragmented customer base, unpredictability in orders and seasonality of deliveries."
Q3 2024
10-Q • Filed 11/7/2024
Summary
Moderna reported Q3 2024 net product sales of $1.82 billion (flat YoY) and swung to $13 million net income from a $3.63 billion loss in Q3 2023, primarily due to favorable $140 million inventory provision adjustments and lower inventory write-downs ($214M vs $1.3B). RSV vaccine launch generated $10M in Q3 sales, but 9-month net product sales declined 44% YoY to $2.17B due to lower COVID-19 vaccine demand outside the U.S. government channel. The company faces operational cash burn of $3.8 billion YTD while managing substantial committed purchase obligations ($1.54B non-cancelable, $3.3B cancelable) and is strategically discontinuing five pipeline programs.
Revenue
$1.86B
Net Income
$13M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$529M(+8.6% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In May 2024, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted approval for mRESVIA (mRNA-1345), our mRNA vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), to protect adults aged 60 and older from lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV infection. This marks our second approved mRNA product."
"For the third quarter of 2024, we recognized net product sales of $1.8 billion from sales of our COVID-19 and RSV vaccines, compared to $1.8 billion for the third quarter of 2023. Earnings per share was $0.03 for the third quarter of 2024."
"As of September 30, 2024, we had deferred revenue of $443 million associated with customer deposits received or billable under supply agreements, with the majority of our COVID-19 vaccine deliveries scheduled in 2024."
Q2 2024
10-Q • Filed 8/1/2024
Summary
Moderna reported Q2 2024 revenue of $241 million (down 30% YoY) driven by declining COVID-19 vaccine sales as the market transitions to seasonal patterns, partially offset by RSV vaccine FDA approval in May 2024 and new licensing revenue. The company posted a net loss of $1.3 billion with negative operating cash flow of $2.3 billion, reflecting heavy R&D investments ($1.2 billion) in its 40-candidate pipeline. Management expects continued seasonal weakness in COVID-19 sales but is building momentum with second commercial product approval, government funding awards, and positive Phase 3 data across multiple programs.
Revenue
$241M
Net Income
$-1,279M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$378M(+8.9% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In May 2024, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted approval for mRESVIA® (mRNA-1345), our mRNA vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), to protect adults aged 60 and older from lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV infection. This marks our second approved mRNA product."
"We anticipate that the demand for our COVID-19 vaccine will be higher in the fall and winter seasons across both hemispheres, as countries prepare for seasonal vaccination campaigns. For the full year of 2024, we expect the progression toward a seasonal commercial market to persist, resulting in further projected reductions in net product sales for our COVID-19 vaccine relative to 2023."
"In June 2024, we announced that our next-generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate (mRNA-1283) met its primary vaccine efficacy endpoint in a Phase 3 trial, demonstrating non-inferior vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 compared to Spikevax in participants 12 years of age and older."
Q1 2024
10-Q • Filed 5/2/2024
Summary
Moderna's Q1 2024 results reflect a dramatic 91% decline in COVID-19 vaccine revenues ($167M vs $1.8B YoY) as the market transitions to a seasonal endemic pattern, with the company posting a net loss of $1.2B compared to net income of $79M in Q1 2023. Operating cash flow remained negative at -$989M, though improved 19% YoY, while the company maintains a strong balance sheet with $12.2B in liquidity and has secured $750M in external funding from Blackstone for influenza vaccine development. The company is advancing its robust pipeline with 40 clinical candidates, including positive Phase 3 data for next-generation COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1283) and RSV vaccine, while maintaining focus on cost efficiency and R&D prioritization.
Revenue
$167M
Net Income
$-1,175M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$196M(+73.5% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"For the full year of 2024, we expect the progression toward a seasonal commercial market to persist, resulting in further projected reductions in net product sales for our COVID-19 vaccine relative to 2023."
"In March 2024, we entered into a development and commercialization funding agreement with Blackstone Life Sciences to advance our flu program...The funding will be recognized as a reduction to the expenses of our flu program. We will retain full rights and control of our flu program."
"We have a diverse and extensive development pipeline of 40 development candidates across our 47 development programs, of which 43 are in clinical studies currently."
Q3 2023
10-Q • Filed 11/3/2023
Summary
Moderna reported Q3 2023 revenue of $1.83B (down 46% YoY) and a net loss of $3.63B, driven by steep inventory write-downs of $1.3B due to COVID-19 vaccine demand collapse and shifting to seasonal endemic market. The company recognized significant deferred revenue decline, negative operating cash flow of $3.74B, and increased its tax valuation allowance by $1.7B, signaling management's loss of confidence in near-term profitability and future cash generation despite maintaining a robust pipeline of 41 development candidates.
Revenue
$1.83B
Net Income
$-3,630M
Guidance
Tone
Capex
$487M(+58.1% YoY)
Partnerships
Key Quotes
"In the third quarter of 2023, we completed our long-range financial planning process, incorporating revised forecasts of vaccination rates. This resulted in the reassessment of future demand for our COVID-19 vaccine, leading to a strategic initiative to resize our manufacturing cost structure."
"Inventory write-downs were mainly related to obsolete inventory due to shelf-life expiration and inventory in excess of expected demand. Losses on firm purchase commitments were primarily related to excess raw material purchase commitments that will expire before the anticipated consumption of those raw materials."
"We reassessed the evidence and concluded that a valuation allowance was necessary due to the preponderance of negative evidence, including a year-to-date pre-tax loss and a projected pre-tax loss for the full year 2023, serving as a significant source of objectively verifiable negative evidence."
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